I. Introduction

This policy brief provides an African perspective on key thematic priorities for the upcoming 31^st session of the Conference of the Parties (COP31), taking place in Antalya, Türkiye, in November 2026. It aims to support African negotiators, policymakers and civil society in advancing a coherent justice-oriented African strategy and narrative in the lead up to and during COP31.

The conference comes at a decisive moment for the global climate regime. Over successive sessions, Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have established much of the institutional architecture needed for climate action, including work programmes, frameworks, technical expert groups and bodies, financial mechanisms, pledges, commitments and reporting requirements. The tenth anniversary of the Paris Agreement in 2025 and the completion of its first policy cycle marked a transition towards an era in which implementation and delivery must become the measure of success. For developing countries, this means translating commitments into tangible improvements in resilience and adaptive capacity, reduced vulnerability, expanded access to affordable and reliable clean energy, and just transition pathways that support climate compatible development, decent work, and prosperity.

Yet COP31 will take place against another turbulent geopolitical and economic backdrop that continues to reshape international climate cooperation and multilateralism. The geopolitical disruptions that characterised the period leading up to COP30 have persisted into 2026, compounded by conflict, energy and food insecurity, escalating climate impacts, and increasing pressure on multilateralism. Escalating conflict between the United States and Iran severely disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, constraining global oil supply chains and contributing to higher energy and food prices and broader inflationary pressures. The near closure of the Strait of Hormuz, for instance, saw oil flows fall from around 20 million barrels per day before the conflict to an average of just 2.7 million barrels per day between March and May 2026.[1] These disruptions have exposed the economic and energy-security risks associated with fossil fuel dependence, reinforcing the importance of energy sovereignty and renewable energy.

At the same time, 2026 has been marked by a succession of extreme weather and climate events, from torrential rains and flash floods across West Africa in January to record ocean temperatures in June, wildfires across Canada and Europe, and record heatwaves across Western Europe. A rapidly developing El Niño in the tropical Pacific has added another layer of risk, as the World Meteorological Organisation confirmed in July that El Niño conditions were already underway and forecast them to intensify into a strong event, leaving climate-vulnerable regions even more susceptible to extreme droughts, floods, heatwaves and escalating humanitarian needs. Compounding these energy, conflict, economic and climate pressures, the United States formally left the Paris Agreement in January 2026 and, earlier that month, announced its decision to withdraw from the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and dozens of other global institutions and initiatives.

For Africa, these intersecting crises carry particularly high costs. The continent is warming faster than the global average, while increasing droughts, floods, heatwaves and other climate extremes are undermining livelihoods, food and water security, infrastructure, and development gains.

Africa’s climate vulnerability is not driven by physical exposure alone, but is also structurally produced through historical and ongoing inequalities, including debt burdens exacerbated by loans, limited fiscal space, unequal trade and finance systems, technology dependence, and extractive economic relationships that continue to constrain countries’ capacity to respond and build energy and food sovereignty. The continent needs approximately US$190-277 billion in climate finance every year to meet its 2030 climate goals, compared with US$43.7 billion in total climate finance flows received in 2021/2022.[2] Loss and damage costs are projected at US$440 billion in Africa alone between 2020 and 2030.[3]   

Africa must therefore enter COP31 not simply as a vulnerable continent seeking recognition and support for its unique circumstances, but also as a rights-holder, climate leader and solution provider with the agency, leadership and sovereignty to shape climate, adaptation, and just transition pathways.  This requires addressing the structural and procedural barriers that constrain African climate action and participation, while enabling the continent to capture greater value from its renewable energy potential, critical minerals, adaptation solutions, and emerging green industries.

However, while the climate crisis and changes in the global energy landscape continue to unfold rapidly, international climate negotiations have struggled to respond at a comparable pace. The June 2026 Bonn Climate Change Conference showed the difficult road that lies ahead to COP31, with unresolved tensions from COP30 in Belém carrying into negotiations and discussions on climate finance, adaptation, just transition and the Adaptation Fund. Some technical and institutional progress was achieved, including agreement on the terms of reference for the review of the Just Transition Work Programme  (JTWP) and decision to retain the UN Environment Programme as the Climate Technology Centre’s host. However, many politically sensitive issues, particularly related to finance and adaptation, remain unresolved. As a result, COP31 will inherit a crowded agenda and significant pressure to turn repeated delays into meaningful implementation and delivery for developing countries.

COP31 will also operate through a unique Türkiye-Australia leadership arrangement. Türkiye will host COP31 and hold the Presidency, including leadership of the Action Agenda, while Australia will serve as President of Negotiations. The arrangement also gives the Pacific a prominent role, with Fiji hosting the pre-COP meeting and Australia working with Pacific Island Countries to elevate regional priorities in negotiations.[4] The Presidency has positioned COP31 as another ‘implementation COP’ and a ‘COP of the Future’, with the objective to turn commitments into tangible progress. It will also include an Action Agenda, spanning electrification and the energy transition, zero waste and the circular economy, resilient cities and infrastructure, sustainable agriculture and food systems, green industrial transformation, climate finance, and strengthening the resilience of vulnerable regions and ecosystems.[5]

For Africa, however, the central test of COP31 will not be the number of new initiatives or declarations announced in Antalya, but whether the shift from negotiations to implementation translates into concrete and just outcomes, backed by the finance, technology and capacity building support required to address structural barriers, strengthen resilience, and enable African countries to pursue nationally determined, equitable, and prosperous development pathways.