MOHAMED ADOW ADDRESSES PRESIDENT DONALD J TRUMP’S PROPOSALS TO WITHDRAW THE UNITED STATES FROM THE PARIS AGREEMENT
Nairobi, Kenya | January 21, 2025
In this question-and-answer response to President Donald J Trump’s executive orders to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement, resume fossil fuel drilling and end federal support for electric vehicles, Mr Mohamed Adow, founder and director of climate think tank Power Shift Africa, argues that the absence of US leadership in areas like clean energy financing, technology transfer, and capacity building widens the gap between what is required and what is available for Africa to transition sustainably. It also means the global carbon budget—a finite resource—is consumed more rapidly, increasing the likelihood of catastrophic climate impacts for vulnerable regions like Africa.
Given the US's significant share of global emissions, how do you anticipate President Trump's withdrawal from the Paris Agreement will affect the global carbon budget, particularly in light of Africa's minimal emissions but severe vulnerability to climate change impacts?
The US contributes around 15% of global carbon emissions, making its commitment crucial for achieving the Paris Agreement’s goals of limiting global temperature rise to
1.5°C. President Trump’s withdrawal undermines collective global efforts by reducing momentum among nations and potentially encouraging other large emitters to deprioritise their climate commitments. For Africa, which contributes less than 4% of global emissions yet suffers disproportionately from climate impacts, this is deeply concerning. The withdrawal threatens the financial and technological support mechanisms that African nations rely on to build resilience and adapt to climate change. The absence of US leadership in areas like clean energy financing, technology transfer, and capacity building widens the gap between what is required and what is available for Africa to transition sustainably. It also means the global carbon budget—a finite resource—is consumed more rapidly, increasing the likelihood of catastrophic climate impacts for vulnerable regions like Africa.
With President Trump's push to end federal support for electric vehicles, what ripple effects could this have on global efforts to decarbonise transportation, and how might this impact emerging electric mobility initiatives in Africa?
President Trump’s efforts to end federal support for electric vehicles (EVs) pose a significant threat to the decarbonisation of transportation globally. The US, as one of the world’s largest automobile markets, plays a pivotal role in driving innovation, scaling production, and reducing costs for EV technologies. Federal incentives, such as tax credits and infrastructure investments, have historically spurred industry growth.
Removing these incentives could slow EV adoption in the US, creating a ripple effect that undermines global progress in reducing emissions from transportation, which accounts for nearly 25% of global CO₂ emissions. For Africa, the implications are equally concerning. African countries, from Kenya to South Africa to Egypt and everything in between, are beginning to explore electric mobility as a means to tackle urban air pollution, reduce dependency on fuel imports, and transition to sustainable energy systems. However, EV adoption in Africa is largely dependent on affordable technology imports and knowledge transfers from advanced economies. A slowdown in the US EV market could hinder innovation, drive up costs, and limit access to affordable EVs and supporting infrastructure in African nations. Additionally, Africa’s ambition to build local EV manufacturing capacity could be delayed due to reduced global momentum and investment in the sector.
The resumption of fossil fuel drilling in the US is likely to shift global energy markets. What are the potential consequences for African nations pursuing renewable energy investments in light of these market disruptions?
President Trump’s argument is that the resumption of large-scale fossil fuel drilling in the US could lead to a global oversupply of oil and gas, driving down prices. While this might seem beneficial for oil-importing African nations in the short term, it poses long- term risks to renewable energy investments across the continent. Our research over the years at Power Shift Africa has shown that low fossil fuel prices often reduce the financial attractiveness of renewable energy projects, as they make alternatives like solar, wind, and geothermal seem less competitive. For African countries that are already grappling with limited access to capital for renewable energy, this market distortion could stall the transition to clean energy. Additionally, nations with significant fossil fuel reserves will now feel incentivised to ramp up extraction to compete in a saturated market, exacerbating environmental degradation and delaying diversification into green energy sectors. To mitigate these risks, African nations must prioritise policies that incentivise renewables irrespective of global fossil fuel price fluctuations. Regional energy frameworks, international partnerships, and green financing mechanisms will be crucial to sustain momentum in renewable energy investments and protect long-term energy security.
As African countries increasingly integrate climate resilience into their economic planning, how can they leverage multilateral frameworks to counteract the global regressions signaled by US climate rollbacks?
African nations can respond to President Trump’s climate policy regressions by doubling down on multilateral cooperation and regional solidarity. The Paris Agreement remains a powerful framework for collective action, and Africa’s unified voice within the African Union, the G77+China, and the African Group of Negotiators (AGN) ensures that the continent’s unique challenges and priorities remain central in global climate discussions. Leveraging multilateral platforms allows African countries to advocate for increased climate financing, technology transfer, and capacity building. Institutions like the Green Climate Fund and initiatives such as the African Renewable Energy Initiative (AREI) provide critical resources for adaptation and mitigation efforts. Moreover, partnerships with the European Union, China, and emerging economies can help offset the loss of US leadership by fostering alternative sources of support. African nations must also enhance South-South cooperation, sharing best practices and innovative solutions to build resilience. Multilateral trade agreements that emphasise green economies can further align economic development with climate goals, ensuring Africa remains on a sustainable trajectory despite external challenges.
President Trump’s policies are often described as short-term economic boosters at the expense of long-term sustainability. What lessons can African nations draw from this approach to avoid similar pitfalls as they pursue their own industrialisation and energy transitions?
African nations can learn valuable lessons from the US’s prioritisation of short-term economic gains over long-term sustainability. First, Africa must recognise that fossil fuel dependency locks economies into volatile markets and exacerbates environmental degradation. Instead, focusing on renewable energy and circular economy principles can provide more stable, diversified, and future-proof economic foundations. Second, African policymakers should promote inclusive development. By involving local communities, civil society, and the private sector in climate planning, they can ensure that energy transitions are equitable and address social as well as economic needs.
Investments in education and skills training will also prepare the workforce for opportunities in emerging green industries, creating long-term employment and reducing economic inequalities. Finally, African nations should prioritise policy frameworks that align economic growth with environmental conservation. Setting clear renewable energy targets, enforcing robust environmental regulations, and adopting green technologies will demonstrate that industrialisation and sustainability can go hand in hand. By learning from Donald Trump’s missteps, Africa has the opportunity to position itself as a leader in sustainable development.
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